So the West Indies has leapfrogged us and gone to 7th on the table. Last time we played them, in 2006, we were 5th and leading them by well over 20 points. In fact, it was that series in 2006 that sent the Windies to their all-time low of 72 points. What has happened in the last 2 1/2 years that has led to this reversal of fortune?
Us
Since early 2006, our rating has been knocked by two losses each to South Africa and England and one to Australia. (I also suspect we took a hit from some good older results expiring from the rating system.) A draw against Sri Lanka and two wins against Bangladesh weren't enough to bolster our ratings appreciably. (In fact, this years 1-0 win against Bangladesh actually hurt us.)
This has equated to a fall in our rating from 101 to 81.
Them
Demonstrating just what a load of crock the whole rating system is, the West Indies have improved their rating from 72 to 81 without winning a single series. Since 2006 they have been beaten by India, Pakistan, England, South Africa and Australia and have drawn 1-1 with Sri Lanka. But inconceivably they are a better team by 9 points. I assume that the expiry of some terrible earlier series must be contributing to this shift.
Fight!
However inadequate the ratings system is, I think it is fair that NZ and WI are now fighting it out for bottom place. At the conclusion of the upcoming series, the ranking table should give a fair reflection of the relative strengths of all the teams.
Showing posts with label statto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statto. Show all posts
Tuesday, 2 December 2008
Friday, 28 November 2008
Ben on...race to the bottom
Even though the Trans-Tasman Trophy isn't up for grabs in today's test at Adelaide, there is still something worth fighting for – the position as the world's second worst major test team.
Let's put some numbers to this.
Currently (from ICC Cricket Rankings):
NZ 1967 points/24 matches = 81.96
WI 1791/22 = 81.41
If we lose this test: NZ = 80.85 (falling below the West Indies)
If we draw this test: NZ = 82.7
If we win, heaven forbid: NZ = 86.4
I calculated this by the following relevant formula (which applies if the difference in the rating of competing teams is 40 or more):
Calculate the series results by taking one point for each match or series win and half a point for a draw, then calculate a new points total by summing the product of the series result and 90 points more than our old rating and the product of Australia's series result and 10 points less than our old rating, then find our new rating by taking the ratio of our new points total and the new number of tests and series played in the last three years.
It is, as you can tell, a maddeningly opaque system with far more precision than it needs considering there is no real championship associated with it. It also really bugs me that we have a situation where the Windies could overtake us in this way (due in large part because of the rained-off test in Bangladesh). If they want to be second-worst, they should bloody well come here and take it from us!
(I could now calculate the possible results for the WI tour, but I've had enough of fiddly calculations for the time being. I used to have a spreadsheet that could calculate it. Imagine that! A championship that requires a spreadsheet to work it out!)
One day I'll take a closer look at alternative ranking systems, but I'll put forward one suggested system now: ditch the points, retain the ranking list; if you beat a team higher than you on the list you go up one ranking, otherwise the rankings don't change.
Let's put some numbers to this.
Currently (from ICC Cricket Rankings):
NZ 1967 points/24 matches = 81.96
WI 1791/22 = 81.41
If we lose this test: NZ = 80.85 (falling below the West Indies)
If we draw this test: NZ = 82.7
If we win, heaven forbid: NZ = 86.4
I calculated this by the following relevant formula (which applies if the difference in the rating of competing teams is 40 or more):
Calculate the series results by taking one point for each match or series win and half a point for a draw, then calculate a new points total by summing the product of the series result and 90 points more than our old rating and the product of Australia's series result and 10 points less than our old rating, then find our new rating by taking the ratio of our new points total and the new number of tests and series played in the last three years.
It is, as you can tell, a maddeningly opaque system with far more precision than it needs considering there is no real championship associated with it. It also really bugs me that we have a situation where the Windies could overtake us in this way (due in large part because of the rained-off test in Bangladesh). If they want to be second-worst, they should bloody well come here and take it from us!
(I could now calculate the possible results for the WI tour, but I've had enough of fiddly calculations for the time being. I used to have a spreadsheet that could calculate it. Imagine that! A championship that requires a spreadsheet to work it out!)
One day I'll take a closer look at alternative ranking systems, but I'll put forward one suggested system now: ditch the points, retain the ranking list; if you beat a team higher than you on the list you go up one ranking, otherwise the rankings don't change.
Saturday, 1 November 2008
Ben on...the surprise performer
I'm not going to analyse the performance of the individual Black Caps, I'll leave that to others, and I'm not going to praise Vettori, he has his well-deserved man of the series award. But I do want to highlight one player whose performance has not only been great, but has exceeded expectations.
In the test series Iain O'Brien picked up 8 wickets at 11.87. The best of the specialist pace bowlers by 7 wickets.
So he had a great series in Bangladesh. However, he also had a great series in England, picking up another 8 wickets from 2 tests at 23.12, again the pick of the pace bowlers.
His selection for the England tour was derided, but for the better part of a year, O'Brien has been our best seamer.
In the test series Iain O'Brien picked up 8 wickets at 11.87. The best of the specialist pace bowlers by 7 wickets.
So he had a great series in Bangladesh. However, he also had a great series in England, picking up another 8 wickets from 2 tests at 23.12, again the pick of the pace bowlers.
His selection for the England tour was derided, but for the better part of a year, O'Brien has been our best seamer.
Monday, 27 October 2008
Ben on...prospect for the match
The third day of the 2nd test has been rained out, following the washout of the first two days. Even if the weather turns and allows play on the 4th and 5th days, surely there is no point continuing with this test. How could there possibly be a result in only two days?
Well, in fact there have been a few test matches decided within two days. It is also worth considering that extra time can be added to the remaining days, allowing a few extra overs, so we actually have a fraction over two days left. Assuming an extra hour can be added to each day, that should give a total allowable number of overs of 210.
Bangladesh have had many 3-day tests recently and a quick look shows that several of those were completed within 210 overs. During a disastrous 2005, Bangladesh were beaten by England in two tests in 190.1 and 190 overs, respectively, and twice by Sri Lanka within 182 and 198.1 overs. Also, they were beaten by NZ earlier this year within 195.5 overs at Wellington.
However, Bangladesh can take heart from history, as NZ has been rolled in some embarrassingly brief tests. NZ's first test match in 1930 lasted only 189.4 overs and the first NZ–Aus test lasted a scarcely believable 145.2 overs. There are a few other examples also, the most recent of which being a thrashing in 188.4 overs by South Africa in November last year.
Well, in fact there have been a few test matches decided within two days. It is also worth considering that extra time can be added to the remaining days, allowing a few extra overs, so we actually have a fraction over two days left. Assuming an extra hour can be added to each day, that should give a total allowable number of overs of 210.
Bangladesh have had many 3-day tests recently and a quick look shows that several of those were completed within 210 overs. During a disastrous 2005, Bangladesh were beaten by England in two tests in 190.1 and 190 overs, respectively, and twice by Sri Lanka within 182 and 198.1 overs. Also, they were beaten by NZ earlier this year within 195.5 overs at Wellington.
However, Bangladesh can take heart from history, as NZ has been rolled in some embarrassingly brief tests. NZ's first test match in 1930 lasted only 189.4 overs and the first NZ–Aus test lasted a scarcely believable 145.2 overs. There are a few other examples also, the most recent of which being a thrashing in 188.4 overs by South Africa in November last year.
Tuesday, 14 October 2008
Ben on...3rd ODI
ODI 3 to kick off in a couple of hours. Rather nervous. Can't really rely on Bangladesh's weakness to counteract NZ's capacity for epic failure.
The Bangladeshi fans can smell the fear.
The match is being played at Chittagong. Apparently the pitch there is slow but hard. A batting paradise it has been called, with some dew to assist the team bowling first. If things run similar to the first two matches, that won't help us too much.
Thinking positively however, there are several Black Caps who might have been expecting to go home with a bit of a boost to their averages who need to get their act together. For everyone to come out of this ODI series in the black, the top of the scorecard is going to have look something like this:
The Bangladeshi fans can smell the fear.
The match is being played at Chittagong. Apparently the pitch there is slow but hard. A batting paradise it has been called, with some dew to assist the team bowling first. If things run similar to the first two matches, that won't help us too much.
Thinking positively however, there are several Black Caps who might have been expecting to go home with a bit of a boost to their averages who need to get their act together. For everyone to come out of this ODI series in the black, the top of the scorecard is going to have look something like this:
Ryder 65
McCullum 60
How 100
Taylor 70
Styris 95
Flynn 20 (not much of an average to maintain)
Oram DNB
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