Winning the toss

Remembering the results on the 'Gabba in 1985 and 1987 (one side won the toss and blasted the other out) and hearing that the wicket is looking green, I assumed that winning the toss would be vital to the outcome of the first test. But then I heard Matthew Hayden say that, while the first session on the 'Gabba has to be negotiated carefully "...once you're in there's a lot of runs on it”, so I decided to have a look at the past few years to see what sort of track record the errr, track has. And the track record is a disturbing one - either Australia bats first and whacks up a mammoth total, or the opposition bats first and crumbles. Whichever happens, Australia win (since 1990 there have been thirteen games, nine Australian wins and four draws). Here is the full breakdown:

1990 – Eng made 194 after Aus won the toss and bowled (Aus won)
1991 – India made 239 after Aus won the toss and bowled (Aus won)
1992 – Aus won the toss and made 293 against WI (draw)
1993 – NZ won the toss and made 233 (Aus won)
1994 – Aus won the toss and made 426 against Eng (Aus won)
1995 – Aus won the toss and made 463 against Pak (Aus won)
1996 – Aus made 479 after WI won the toss and bowled (Aus won)
1997 – Aus made 373 after NZ won the toss and bowled (Aus won)
1998 – Aus won the toss and made 475 against Eng (draw)
1999 – Pak made 367 after Aus won the toss and bowled (Aus won)
2000 – WI scored 82 after Aus won the toss and bowled (Aus won)
2001 – Aus scored 486/9 after NZ won the toss and bowled (draw)
2002 – Aus scored 492 after Eng won the toss and bowled(Aus won)
2003 – Aus scored 323 after India won the toss and bowled (draw)

Given that the wicket does look green, I suspect Fleming will be tempted to put Australia in if he wins the toss. And given that the Australian ethos is to bat first and bash up a big total fast, Ponting will probably want to win the toss and bat. Which means that the toss (and my analysis) might actually end up being completely irrelevant.